The core equation
Strategy is arithmetic: fresh tires are faster, but a pit stop costs 18–25 seconds. Every plan balances the lap-time gain of new rubber against that fixed cost. When degradation is low, one stop wins; when tires fall apart, two or even three stops are faster despite the extra pit visits.
Teams simulate thousands of race permutations before lights out, then re-run them live as reality intervenes. The strategist's screen shows every rival's 'pit window' — the lap range where their stop makes sense — and the fight is about entering yours at the perfect moment.
The undercut and the overcut
The undercut is F1's signature move: pit one lap before the rival ahead, use the fresh-tire advantage on your out-lap, and when they stop a lap later, you emerge in front. It works because a new tire's first laps are its fastest — worth a second or more at some circuits.
The overcut inverts the logic: stay out longer while your rival struggles in traffic or on tires that need gentle warm-up, build a gap in clear air, and stop later. Overcuts thrive at circuits where new tires take laps to switch on, or when the car ahead pits into traffic.
Reading a race like a strategist
Watch the gaps, not the positions. A leader 19 seconds ahead of P2 is 'in the pit window' — they can stop and return still leading. A driver suddenly lapping half a second slower has probably hit tire degradation ('the cliff') and become undercut bait.
Track position versus tire offset is the eternal trade: emerging ahead on worn tires, or behind on fresh ones with laps to attack. Circuits where overtaking is easy favor tire offset; circuits like Monaco favor track position at nearly any cost.
Chaos theory: safety cars and rain
A safety car halves the cost of a pit stop, instantly rewriting every plan. Teams pre-compute 'SC windows' each lap: if the safety car comes now, do we stop? The answer flips race outcomes more than any other single factor.
Rain adds the crossover problem: intermediates are faster than slicks once the track is wet enough, and vice versa as it dries. Calling that crossover a lap early — like Gasly's team at Monza 2020 or countless Interlagos gambles — is how midfield cars steal wins.